UFC 74- Title Fight Analysis

Hey Friends,

I know I've been relatively silent in the blogosphere once again. That has much to do with the fact that I spent most of this week at my grandparents house in Bloomington where the Internet is something only spoken of in whispers and rumors.

For my return to active posting, I've decided to share my thoughts on tomorrow nights UFC Heavyweight Championship fight between my hero Randy Couture and the up-and-coming challenger Gabriel Gonzaga. Dustin recently asked me to offer some insight and I thought I'd share my response to his request with all of you. I have limited myself to 6 dense paragraphs.

A Bad Match Up for the Champ?
As one of the central proverbs of combat sports declares, "Styles make fights." On paper, Gabriel Gonzaga is arguably the worst style match-up Randy Couture could be up against. When Randy first moved down from heavy to light heavyweight in 2003, it had everything to do with the fact that he had dropped two consecutive title fights to other skilled grapplers who outsized him. Gonzaga fits the mold of those two previous opponents: Like Ricco Rodriguez, Gabe is highly competent ju jitsu player with plenty of brawn to supplement his technique. Like Josh Barnett, Gabe gets your thinking about his superior ground game and then lambastes you with his thunderous striking power. Randy admitted before the Gonzaga-Cro Cop showdown in April that Gonzaga would pose a greater challenge for him, and now many MMA pundits are agreeing with him. A lot of credible folks are picking the challenger to win Saturday night.

The Evolution of Couture
The potentially fatal flaw in the above pro-Gonzaga logic is that it compares a present day Gabe with the Randy Couture who stepped into the Octagon at UFC 36 and UFC 39. Not only does it overlook the Randy who dominated Tito Ortiz for 5 rounds (at 205 lbs., Tito was a grappler with a definite size advantage), it doesn't give much merit to Randy's championship victory over Tim Sylvia. The pro-Gonzaga crowd rightly points out that, although Tim was half a foot taller and had 40+ pounds on Couture, Tim's strength is the stand-up game and he's not known for his grappling. But I think this point gets an excessive amount of attention and another very important truth goes unnoticed: Randy demonstrated a skill set against Tim that was nowhere to be found in the Randy who fought Barnett. He's had an effective combination of boxing and wrestling ever since Couture-Liddell I, and he demonstrated at UFC 68 that competent Muay Thai skills are not part of his arsenal.

Key Questions to Consider
I think picking a winner in this fight comes down to how one chooses to answer three key questions. First, can Randy neutralize the submission game of a bigger, stronger opponent? I think he can. His fights against Barnett and Rodriguez ended as a result of strikes not submissions. Those two men, however, used their submission grappling skills to make Randy defensive, get him on his back, and pound him out. Other than having to defend a couple armbar attempts during Couture-Belfort III, Randy's not had to worry much about being submitted since his loss to Rodriguez. Gonzaga may be able to follow the blue print of his predecessors to victory or, if he's slick, he might get Randy thinking too much about the ground and pound and catch the champ in an armbar or side choke.

Question number two is, Who has the better stand up? I'll be thoroughly surprised if this battle is won on the feet by either man. Randy has always employed striking to set up takedowns or to neutralize the superior stand up of an opponent. Gonzaga, meanwhile, may have stopped three of his last four opponents with strikes but two of them were men who are winless in the UFC and one whom he thoroughly bludgeoned from the mount and disoriented before kicking his head into the 12th row. I think Randy and Gabe will neutralize one another standing up.

The final question (which Randy himself has continually brought to the fore) is, Can Gonzaga handle the intangibles and physical stress of competing in a 5-round championship main event for the first time in his career. Randy, on the other hand, has been in several 25-minute wars and is perpetually in the title picture of whatever weight class he has competed in. Georges St-Pierre's championship loss at UFC 69 emphatically demonstrated that even the most complete skill set cannot achieve victory without a steely mental resolve to compliment it. Randy has such resolve. Whether or not Gonzaga shares it has yet to be seen.

My Prediction
Couture by Unanimous Decision. After Randy won the UFC Heavyweight Championship for the third time in March, I posted a lengthy reflection on how he has consistently thrived in the role of the underdog. I learned my lesson when I picked Randy to lose against Tim Sylvia despite my deep loyalty towards The Natural. This time, my heart and my mind are siding with Randy. Randy will give Gonzaga hell and outpoint his opponent but, unless the challenger gasses out, Gabe will hang around until the final bell.